BLOG: Global 2024 PE demand could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes, population drive market

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: If I had a dollar for every time I’d heard that population and income growth are the defining factors behind the petrochemicals demand boom of the last 30 years, I would be retired by now.

I could be sitting on some desert island, watching plastic waste wash onto what was once a pristine beach.

But the historic data doesn’t appear to support the accepted wisdom on population and income growth, as today’s long and detailed post argues:

On this basis, global polyethylene (PE) demand would have been just 52m tonnes in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes.

The China market would have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.

Global demand 74m tonnes higher than might have been the case was the result of:

Trade liberalisation, wealth growth as opposed to just income growth (think of the China property bubble); youthful populations, most importantly in China; innovations in packaging (not all of them of use to society); and few concerns about plastic waste.

What happens next given the big changes to all these positive demand drivers that are discussed in today’s post?

Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.